Is Demography Destiny?

The following article appeared recently in the Wall Street Journal. Israeli scholars have researched the intersection of sociology and economics - some have even won Nobel Prizes for their scholarship. This piece was written by a European scholar who draws our attention to the role the UN and others have played in creating a very destructive dynamic among Arab youth - for the Palestinians, in particular. DBC


Stop funding a Palestinian youth bulge and the fighting will stop, too.


By GUNNAR HEINSOHN | From today's Wall Street Journal Europe


As the world decries Israel's attempt to defend itself from the rocket attacks coming from Gaza, consider this: When Hamas routed Fatah in Gaza in 2007, it cost nearly 350 lives and 1,000 wounded. Fatah's surrender brought only a temporary stop to the type of violence and bloodshed that are commonly seen in lands where at least 30% of the male population is in the 15-to-29 age bracket.

In such "youth bulge" countries, young men tend to eliminate each other or get killed in aggressive wars until a balance is reached between their ambitions and the number of acceptable positions available in their society. In Arab nations such as Lebanon (150,000 dead in the civil war between 1975 and 1990) or Algeria (200,000 dead in the Islamists' war against their own people between 1999 and 2006), the slaughter abated only when the fertility rates in these countries fell from seven children per woman to fewer than two. The warring stopped because no more warriors were being born.

In Gaza, however, there has been no demographic disarmament. The average woman still bears six babies. For every 1,000 men aged 40-44, there are 4,300 boys aged 0-4 years. In the U.S. the latter figure is 1,000, and in the U.K. it's only 670.

And so the killing continues. In 2005, when Israel was still an occupying force, Gaza lost more young men to gang fights and crime than in its war against the "Zionist enemy." Despite the media's obsession with the Mideast conflict, it has cost many fewer lives than the youth bulges in West Africa, Lebanon or Algeria. In the six decades since Israel's founding, "only" some 62,000 people (40,000 Arabs, 22,000 Jews) have been killed in all the Israeli-Arab wars and Palestinian terror attacks. During that same time, some 11 million Muslims have been killed in wars and terror attacks -- mostly at the hands of other Muslims.

What accounts for the Mideast conflict's relatively low body count? Hamas and their ilk certainly aim to kill as many Israelis as possible. To their indignation, the Israelis are quite good at protecting themselves. On the other hand, Israel, despite all the talk about its "disproportionate" use of force, is doing its utmost to spare civilian deaths. Even Hamas acknowledges that most of the Palestinians killed by Israeli air raids are from their own ranks. But about 10%-15% of Gaza's casualties are women and minors -- a tragedy impossible to prevent in a densely settled area in which nearly half the people are under 15 and the terrorists hide among them.

The reason for Gaza's endless youth bulge is that a large majority of its population does not have to provide for its offspring. Most babies are fed, clothed, vaccinated and educated by UNRWA, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Unlike the U.N. High Commission for Refugees, which deals with the rest of the world's refugees and aims to settle them in their respective host countries, UNRWA perpetuates the Palestinian problem by classifying as refugees not only those who originally fled their homes, but all of their descendents as well.

UNRWA is benevolently funded by the U.S. (31%) and the European Union (nearly 50%) -- only 7% of the funds come from Muslim sources. Thanks to the West's largesse, nearly the entire population of Gaza lives in a kind of lowly but regularly paid dependence. One result of this unlimited welfare is an endless population boom. Between 1950 and 2008, Gaza's population has grown from 240,000 to 1.5 million. The West basically created a new Near Eastern people in Gaza that at current trends will reach three million in 2040. Within that period, Gazans may alter the justifications and directions of their aggression but are unlikely to stop the aggression itself.

The Hamas-Fatah truce of June 2007 allowed the Islamists again to direct all their energy on attacking Israel. The West pays for food, schools, medicine and housing, while Muslim nations help out with the military hardware. Unrestrained by such necessities as having to earn a living, the young have plenty of time on their hands for digging tunnels, smuggling, assembling missiles and firing 4,500 of them at Israel since 2006. While this gruesome activity has slowed the Palestinian internecine slaughter, it forced some 250,000 Israelis into bomb shelters.

The current situation can only get worse. Israel is being pushed into a corner. Gazan teenagers have no future other than war. One rocket master killed is immediately replaced by three young men for whom a martyr's death is no less honorable than victory. Some 230,000 Gazan males, aged 15 to 29, who are available for the battlefield now, will be succeeded by 360,000 boys under 15 (45% of all Gazan males) who could be taking up arms within the coming 15 years.

As long as we continue to subsidize Gaza's extreme demographic armament, young Palestinians will likely continue killing their brothers or neighbors. And yet, despite claiming that it wants to bring peace to the region, the West continues to make the population explosion in Gaza worse every year. By generously supporting UNRWA's budget, the West assists a rate of population increase that is 10 times higher than in their own countries. Much is being said about Iran waging a proxy war against Israel by supporting Hezbollah and Hamas. One may argue that by fueling Gaza's untenable population explosion, the West unintentionally finances a war by proxy against the Jews of Israel.

If we seriously want to avoid another generation of war in Gaza, we must have the courage to tell the Gazans that they will have to start looking after their children themselves, without UNRWA's help. This would force Palestinians to focus on building an economy instead of freeing them up to wage war. Of course, every baby lured into the world by our money up to now would still have our assistance.

If we make this urgently needed reform, then by at least 2025 many boys in Gaza -- like in Algeria -- would enter puberty as only sons. They would be able to look forward to a more secure future in a less violent society.

If the West prefers calm around Gaza even before 2025, it may consider offering immigration to those young Palestinians only born because of the West's well-meant but cruelly misguided aid. In the decades to come, North America and Europe will have to take in tens of millions of immigrants anyway to slow the aging of their populations. If, say, 200,000 of them are taken from the 360,000 boys coming of age in Gaza in the next 15 years, that would be a negligible move for the big democracies but a quantum leap for peace in the Near East.

Many of Gaza's young -- like in much of the Muslim world -- dream of leaving anyway. Who would not want to get out of that strip of land but the international NGOs and social workers whose careers depend on perpetuating Gaza's misery?

Mr. Heinsohn heads the Raphael Lemkin Institute at the University of Bremen, Europe's first institute devoted to comparative genocide research.

This prayer for peace was written by Jerusalem based reform rabbi, Levi Weiman Kelman: 

If there has ever been  time for prayer, this is that time. 

If there has ever been a place forsaken, Gaza is that place. 

Lord, who is the creator of all children, hear our prayer this accursed day. 

God whom we call Blessed, turn your face to these, the children of Gaza, 

that they may know Your blessings and your shelter, that they may know light and warmth, 

where there is now only blackness and smoke, and a cold which cuts and clenches the skin. 

Almighty who make exceptions, which we call miracles, make an exception for the children of Gaza. 

Shield them from us and from their own. 

Spare them. Heal them. Let them stand in safety. Deliver them from hunger and horror and fury and grief. 

Deliver them from us and from their own. 

Restore to them stolen childhoods, their birthright, which is a taste of heaven.

Remind us, O Lord, of the child Ishmael, who is the father of all the children of Gaza. 

Hoe the child Ishmael was without water and left for dead in the wilderness of Be-erSheba, so robbed of all hop, that his own mother could not bear to watch his life drain away. 

Be that Lord, the God of our kinsman Ishmael, who heard his cry and sent His angel to comfort his mother, Hagar. 

Be that Lord, who was with Ishmael that day, and all the days after. 

Be that God, the All-Merciful, who opened Hagar's eyes that day, and showed her the well of eater, that she could give the boy Ishmael to drink, and save his life. 

Allah, whose name we call Elohim, who gives life, who knows the value and fragility of every life, send these children your angels. 

Save them, the children of this place, Gaza, Gaza the most beautiful, Gaza the damned. 

In this day, when the trepidation and rage and mourning that is called war, seizes our hearts and patches them in scars, we call to you the Lord whose name is Peace: 

Bless these children, keep them from harm. 

Turn Your face toward them, O Lord. Show them, s if for the first time, light and kindness, and overwhelming graciousness. 

Look up to them, O Lord. Let them see your face. 

And, as if for the first time, grant them peace .

Documentary film maker Laura Bialis shares her experiences in Sderot, the Israeli town just a few kilometres from Gaza. To get to her web site and see the film's trailer, press here.

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Here are some thoughts penned by yours truly:

"Would he recognize his brother's face?" Jacob wondered as he prepared to reunite with Esau after twenty years of estrangement. So much water had gone under the bridge: The initial flight from Esau's anger at having lost both his birthright and blessing had led soon to a life of servitude to Laban, and a life of domesticity with Laban's daughter, first Leah then Rachel.

And now the moment had arrived. Esau was approaching with four hundred fighting men. Jacob had carefully arranged his flocks and herds to provide both protection and a peace offering to his brother. But would he recognize him? Twenty years is a long time. He imagined Esau's face contorted with anger over the sins of the past. But who knew? The eye of memory played tricks with facial features. It could not be trusted.

And suddenly Esau approached, no weapon in his hand, a growing smile on his face. It was him, thought Jacob. Different, but something in that face struck him, a note so familiar.

Pleasantries were exchanged: "Are these really all your kids?" "You've done well for yourself with all these flocks." Jacob insisted that Esau accept a token, a gift. "No I pray, do me this favor and accept this gift; for to see your face is like seeing the face of God, and you have received me favorably." (Genesis 33:10)

In that moment, Jacob understood. To see God's face in that of his brother's, recalled all that bound them together: their childhood, their parents, their humanity. Jacob understood that despite their differences, they were both created in God's image, and thus interdependent and fundamentally related. In that moment, Jacob's enemy vanished; in his place stood a friend.

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In these past weeks of renewed violence in Israel and Gaza, it's been hard to maintain any sense of hope that things might get better. The anger and disappointment are so profound there seems no room for improvement.

And while no can minimize the complexity of relationship between Arab and Jew in the Middle East - no one can lightly suggest the setting aside of generations of suspicion - Parashat Vayishlach suggests that the first step toward reconciliation must take place within the parties themselves. Currently, many Jews and Arabs have objectified the other, seeing him in terms less than fully human. Only once Arab and Jew can see in the other the face of God, only then will mutual distrust and hatred be replaced by an effort to build peace for the future. And it will best happen two people at a time, face to face.

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I am planning to be in Israel the last two weeks of February and will be writing regularly on this blog about my day-to-day experiences, as well as publishing photographs. To follow my journey, subscribe above by filling out the form found in the upper right hand corner. I look forward to sharing my thoughts, feelings and observations with you.

Why Israel Needed to Launch a Ground Operation in Gaza

Rosner's Domain offers this analysis why Israel had to undertake a ground operation in Gaza. Note that it begins with with the perception of Israelis but quickly turns to the points of view of Hamas, Hizb"Allah, and others.

Previous polls have shown that Israelis are apprehensive about the kind of ground operation in Gaza that has just begun. This is a direct reflection of Israelis’ dwindling confidence in the IDF's ability to emerge victorious from a ground war in this dense and treacherous territory. And this very skepticism is a key factor in Israeli leaders' decision to go in on the ground last night.

If Israelis, traumatized by the 2006 Lebanon war, have a hard time believing they can win a ground war against Hamas, so do Israel's neighbors. Hamas spokespersons were bragging last week that Israel would not dare invade Gaza, and promised that the Jewish state would pay a high price if it did. If the Gaza war ended without a ground operation, Hamas leaders would have crowed that Israel was deterred by Palestinian forces, and this would have led to a further erosion of Israel's reputation as a nation that cannot be intimidated. If Arab terrorists perceive Israel as a country wary of conflict, terrorist groups will only attack more in hopes of defeating the paper tiger.

So - the IDF and Israel's leaders have three goals in launching this ground war: First, they want to make Hamas pay a price that will force it into a renewed ceasefire. Second, they must prove to the Arab world that Lebanon 2006 did not turn Israel into a country afraid of war. And third, they must engender renewed Israeli confidence in the country's armed forces.

Responding to the Operation in Gaza - Part 2: Answers for Those Who Question Israel's Actions...

- - - for analysis of the political and military situation, press here.

As Israel enters her third day of Operation "Cast Lead" against the Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the following points, written by colleague Rabbi Mickey Boyden (who spoke at Sinai about five years ago) who serves a reform congregation in Hod HaSharon, north of Tel Aviv. If you are fielding questions about Israel's role in the current unrest, the following points are important to share:

1. Israel never wanted this war. Even Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority and no friend of Israel, said that Operation Cast Lead would never have started if Hamas had been prepared to extend the ceasefire.

2. I wonder how many people know that, on the day prior to the commencement of the Operation, we admitted a Palestinian from the Gaza Strip for medical treatment in our country. He had been severely wounded by a stray Hamas rocket fired on Israel.

3. A homicide bomber exploded himself today in Mosul, Iraq. In doing so, he killed and wounded Sunni Muslims, who were holding a demonstration against Israel's operation in the Gaza Strip. The people we are dealing with are driven by a fanaticism that shows no respect for any of the human values we profess. Who else would callously and sadistically hold Gilead Shalit
prisoner for over 900 days without granting access to the Red Cross or providing his family with any opportunity to communicate with him? (Incidentally, the same is not true for Palestinians being held in Israeli
jails.)

4. Egypt's opposition to Operation Cast Lead has been fairly muted. After all, it is Hamas and similar Muslim fundamentalist groups that threaten the stability of President Mubarak's secular government.

5. For those who criticize Israel's action, I have just one question: Where was your voice during the months and years that thousands of Kassam rockets and mortar shells rained down on Sederot and our kibbutzim and towns close to the Gaza Strip?

6. To those who argue that Israel's action is "disproportionate", I would ask this: How else do you stop an Iranian backed terrorist force operating out of civilian areas, who do not respect the Geneva Convention and who deny Israel's right to exist as a sovereign Jewish state?

7. When people criticize Israel for closing the border crossings into the Gaza Strip, they have a short memory. Israel withdrew her forces from the Gaza Strip and evacuated Jewish civilian settlements in the area at great personal and economic cost. Instead of moving in peacefully, Hamas used the areas that we had evacuated to launch rocket attacks on undefended civilian
targets in Israel. The closing of border crossings was used in a vain attempt to persuade the Palestinians that it was not in their interests to continuing firing rockets against Israel. Prior to such attacks, the crossing were always open. Even this very day, in the middle of the current Operation, Israel allowed three aircraft from Qatar bearing humanitarian aid to land at El Arish airport in the Gaza Strip.

8. You will notice that the pictures you are seeing of the Palestinian dead and wounded to date have all been of men. No women or children. If there had been women and children, the Palestinians would have been quick to use such material for propaganda purposes. Although innocent people will inevitably be killed, the identity of those killed and wounded testifies to the skill of the Israeli Air Force in pinpointing its attacks and limiting them to Hamas targets and infrastructure.

How are things in Israel? As ever, life carries on as normal. Jerusalem today was full of families celebrating Chanukah and enjoying the Winter sun. The inhabitants of Sederot finally can breathe a sigh of relief in knowing that the IDF is attacking those who have made their lives miserable over the past few years. No one mentions the children who grow up in fear, those who
have returned to wetting their beds and the tens of thousands of innocent human beings who have been living their lives knowing that they had just 15 seconds to get to a bomb shelter once hearing the Red Alert air raid warning. No one likes war, but with an implacable enemy like the Hamas, the current situation could not be allowed to continue.

Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!

Micky Boyden - Hod HaSharon, Israel 8/29/08

Responding to the Operation in Gaza

[Picture at left is from Jerusalem Post, of a border police officer inspects damage, after a rocket fired by Palestinian terrorists from within the Gaza Strip hit a house in Tkuma, near the southern Israeli town of Netivot.]

When Israel left the Gaza strip to the Palestinians, the pessimists predicted Gaza would become a staging ground for those Israel’s enemies. Sadly, the pessimists were correct and we’re seeing now what was predicted to be the inevitable outcome of an Israeli withdrawal: a need for periodic incursions to eradicate the infrastructure that facilitates missile attacks against Israel.

Rabbi Eric Yoffie, president of the Union for Reform Judaism, shared this response to the Gaza Violence:

“For the past three weeks, Israel has lived under an increasing barrage of rocket fire from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. More than 80 missiles landed on a single day. Israel's first responsibility, like that of any nation, is to protect her citizens. The military action that Israel launched Saturday morning was clearly intended to do just that. Israel's action is as tragic as it is necessary and predictable. While we mourn the loss of life, no democratic nation in the world would permit a hostile force on its border to target its civilian centers with constant missile attacks. Israel has demonstrated extraordinary restraint as nearly 8000 rockets have been launched at Israel's cities in the last 8 years. When Israel withdrew every civilian and soldier from Gaza in 2005, the attacks did not stop for a single day.

We believe that military action must always be the last resort. But more and more Israeli cities are now in range of Hamas' rocket-firing army of terror, and we know that the traumatized children of Sderot and neighboring towns can no longer be expected to live in constant fear. Read on.